Eli Drinkwitz is entering his third season as an SEC head coach, which is in one sense an eternity — six of the league’s 14 head coaches are entering their first or second seasons — and in another not a very long time at all. But patience is not a virtue in this conference, or anywhere in college football these days. Drinkwitz understands this.
“We’ve spent two years really trying to win and build at the same time,” he said. “We go to back-to-back bowl games and have the recruiting classes we have. I think the future is bright, but the future needs to be now.”
His Tigers went 5-5 in conference-only play in 2020 (earning an invite to a Music City Bowl that was canceled) and 6-7 in 2021 with a last-second loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. He’s replacing his starting quarterback and the holder of the program’s single-season rushing record, but he’s confident that his current roster has more depth than at any other point in his tenure, particularly at key spots along the defensive line and in the secondary — and that his program’s development is moving right at the pace he hoped it would be.
The Tigers’ 2022 SEC slate opens with a brutal trio of tests: Auburn, Georgia and Florida in three consecutive weeks beginning on Sept. 24. Drinkwitz knows that schedule will do the Tigers no favors. But the record is also not the only way he judges growth, and a three-game stretch shouldn’t be the only way anyone evaluates the coming season.
“We’re in a scoreboard-based business, and it’s all about wins and losses,” Drinkwitz said. “But it also takes time to build, and there’s not instant transformation from what we were to what we want to be like. It’s not a quick fix. The team that just won the national championship took five years of recruiting a top-five class in order to get there, and they have unlimited resources.
“In order for us to compete at that level, we’re going to have to continuously build. And so what I look for is: How are we recruiting? Do we have more competitive depth at positions No. 1 through 45 instead of 1 through 5? Are we competitive? You look for the competitive nature. Discipline to compete precedes the discipline to win. Do we have the competitive nature to stay in games and be in close games consistently? We were able to do that our first year by beating LSU and beating Arkansas that year. We had a competitive game versus Florida. But we had three games in the fourth quarter where we had a lead or were tied and didn’t win. So we’ve got to flip those things in order to finish in the win column the way all the fans want us to.”
Those are the key disciplines Drinkwitz reels off: Discipline to compete, which leads to the discipline to win alongside the discipline to regularly recruit at a high level. Mizzou’s 2021 class checked in at No. 27 in the nation; the 2022 class is ranked 15th according to the 247Sports Composite, headlined by five-star receiver Luther Burden.
The talent is here. Are more wins coming, too?
With lead back Tyler Badie drafted in the sixth round by the Baltimore Ravens and streaky starting quarterback Connor Bazelak off to Indiana, the Tigers are looking for new playmakers amid an offensive personnel overhaul.
The quarterback competition in August may end up being a wide-open four-player race. Redshirt sophomore Brady Cook, who earned his first career start in the bowl game against Army, has the most experience in Drinkwitz’s offense. That should give him a leg up over redshirt freshman Tyler Macon, who saw action in three games last season and has improved both his accuracy and decision-making this offseason. But here’s where the competition gets really interesting: Coaches are hoping they’ll be adding four-star signee Sam Horn to the mix, but they don’t know for sure. Horn is an elite two-sport athlete who could be selected in the MLB Draft this July. He may never come to Columbia.
That’s part of the reason Mizzou added transfer Jack Abraham in mid-May. The Tigers had kicked the tires on some of the high-profile transfer quarterbacks available this summer, clearly interested in adding some experience to the room. Abraham has that, which will be important with three of Mizzou’s first six games coming on the road. Abraham will turn 25 this fall and is wrapping up a winding career that has taken him to Louisiana Tech, Northwest Mississippi Community College, Southern Miss and Mississippi State, where he never ended up playing due to injury and was granted a hardship waiver for a seventh season.
Transfer running back Nathaniel Peat, who spent the past three seasons at Stanford and led the Cardinal in rushing last year, is expected to fill Badie’s shoes. He’s a physical every-down running back who has terrific speed and explosivity. A former high school state champion in the 100 meters, he will also factor into Mizzou’s return game. There’s a good amount of depth behind him in junior Elijah Young (who had a career-high 75 yards on 13 carries in the bowl game), sophomores BJ Harris and Michael Cox and transfer Cody Schrader, who led Division II with 2,074 rushing yards last season while at Truman State and broke the 200-yard rushing mark in five games.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman Luther Burden III, considered by multiple recruiting services to be the top receiver in the Class of 2022 and just the third consensus five-star prospect to ever sign with Missouri. Burden played at East St. Louis High School and chose the Tigers over the likes of Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Florida. He’s the kind of special player that makes the spectacular look easy. He will contribute immediately this fall, but he won’t be the only weapon in the passing game. One of the deepest position groups on the roster is led by sophomores Dominic Lovett and Mookie Cooper in the slot and senior Tauskie Dove outside. Sophomore Chance Luper is another playmaker with size and athleticism. The tight end position is much more of an unknown; the Tigers have lost three tight ends from the roster since the end of the season. Buffalo transfer Tyler Stephens, walk-on Kibet Chepyator and redshirt freshman Ryan Hoerstkamp are all in the mix, though that group offers very, very little experience in this offense. For a scheme that utilizes a lot of two-tight end sets, it’s an important hole to watch.
Mizzou returns a ton of experience up front, anchored by senior left tackle Javon Foster, who started every game last season. Senior Xavier Delgado and junior Luke Griffin will battle for the starting left guard spot; both have starts under their belt. Super senior Connor Wood is expected to start the season at right guard, though he’ll be pushed by sophomore EJ Ndoma-Ogar. Zeke Powell, who played left tackle during the 2020 season, will compete at right tackle with Wood and promising early enrollee Armand Membou. (Last year’s right tackle, Hyrin White, missed the spring with a lower leg injury and is out until at least the start of fall camp.) The competition at center is probably the most intriguing battle outside of the quarterback position, with redshirt freshman Connor Tollison, Buffalo transfer Bence Polgar and sophomore Drake Heismeyer all vying to fill the void left by all-SEC center Michael Maietti.
Key stats to know: Missouri’s pass catchers have been among the most surehanded in the FBS over the past two seasons, dropping just 5.0 percent of catchable targets (34th in the FBS), according to Pro Football Focus. Under Drinkwitz, Missouri rushers have ranked among the top half of the FBS in yards per rush (4.5), percentage of rushes for five-plus yards (39.6%) and rushing touchdowns (43). So the run game and the receivers have contributed in the ways Missouri wants them to, which puts an even bigger spotlight on the inconsistency at quarterback.
Over the past two seasons, Missouri has finished bottom-50 in the FBS in pass efficiency (132.6, 80th in the FBS), yards per attempt (7.0, 91st) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.65, 85th) — all despite having the 12th-best completion percentage in the country over that span (66.9%). The Tigers haven’t been able to stretch the field; since the start of 2020, the Tigers’ average pass has traveled 7.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and just 19.8 percent of Missouri’s passes over that span have been to targets 15-plus yards downfield, both of which rank among the lowest averages in the nation. As a result, 53.1 percent of the Tigers’ passing yards since 2020 have come after the catch, the 21st-highest rate in the FBS. That’s asking a lot of your receivers.
Missouri needs to improve at every level of its defense, a task now overseen by Blake Baker, who plans to run a scheme similar to the 4-2-5 defense of his predecessor, Steve Wilks. (Wilks left for an NFL job in February, leading Drinkwitz to promote Baker, who spent 2021 as LSU’s linebackers coach and was originally hired as Mizzou’s new safeties coach.) Up front, the defense will be led by two potential NFL players in senior ends Isaiah McGuire and Trajan Jeffcoat, who combined for 9.5 sacks and 24 tackles for loss last season. They’ll be backed up by redshirt freshman end Arden Walker, who is more of a power end, and sophomore Johnny Walker Jr., more of a speed rush guy.
On the interior will be senior tackle Darius Robinson, who started six games last season, alongside either senior Realus George Jr. or Oklahoma State transfer Jayden Jernigan. Junior Daniel Robledo has an upper-body injury and may not see the field until after Mizzou’s idle week, but he should eventually factor in, too. Baylor transfer Josh Landry should bring more depth along the line. The staff has been trying to add bodies to a much-maligned group that struggled to stop the run, particularly during the first half of the season. Heading into fall camp, the case could be made that defensive end is the strongest unit of the defense and defensive tackle is the thinnest.
Florida transfer Ty’Ron Hopper should provide an immediate boost at linebacker. Hopper, a former four-star prospect who got some game experience with the Gators, is expected to start at Will linebacker in Columbia, backed up by senior Devin Nicholson. At the Mike position, Chuck Hicks will push fellow senior Chad Bailey, who made eight starts last season. Baker’s defense utilizes a Star hybrid position, and senior Martez Manuel will likely be the starter there, even after missing spring due to an injury.
Because sophomore Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and junior Kris Abrams-Draine missed all of spring, the starting cornerback spots aren’t totally settled yet but probably will be soon now that both are fully healthy. Sophomore DJ Jackson and redshirt freshman Dreydon Norwood at the very least will provide good depth behind them. Junior J.C. Carlies is expected to start again at safety, perhaps opposite Clemson transfer Joseph Charleston. Mizzou needs more depth everywhere in its secondary, but it is particularly thin at safety.
Key stat to know: The Tigers’ rush defense was atrocious early in the year, which led to the rare early-October assistant coaching change: the firing of defensive line coach Jethro Franklin and the promotion of defensive analyst Al Davis to oversee the position. Over its first five games last season, Missouri ranked 129th in the FBS in yards per rush allowed, 128th in percentage of opponent carries gaining 5-plus yards and 130th in yards before contact allowed per rush, according to Pro Football Focus. Tennessee rushed for 452 yards and scored on 10 of its 11 offensive possessions in a blowout victory that underscored the need for change.
After Drinkwitz fired Franklin, Mizzou ranked 80th in FBS in yards per rush allowed, 38th in percentage of opponent carries gaining 5-plus yards and 28th in yards before contact allowed per rush. That’s the type of drastic improvement that keeps you in games and gets the interim defensive line coach promoted to the position on a full-time basis.
Stanford transfer Nate Peat could be a real difference-maker in the Mizzou return game. He led the Cardinal in rushing last season with 404 rushing yards on 79 carries, and he was Stanford’s most valuable special teams player each of the past two seasons. Peat led the Pac-12 with 663 kickoff return yards (averaging 24.6 yards per return) and could be a valuable field-flipping returner.
A defensive coordinator who faced Missouri last year felt that the defensive line had athletes who had playmaking ability, particularly on the perimeter.
“They had guys who could run around you,” the coach said. “But when you ran right at them, they struggled. … I just didn’t think they were stout against downhill runs. We were able to move them a bit, but they were very athletic.
“I personally didn’t think the linebackers were SEC (quality). They don’t play like the guys at Georgia, you know what I mean? I would say that was a weakness for them.”
The coach characterized the secondary as, indeed, SEC-caliber in terms of athleticism and talent, but he added that the group was a bit undisciplined at times. The back end is one of the spots where Missouri most needs to improve if it wants to win more games.
In the past four years, Missouri ranks 32nd nationally in average recruiting ranking, but it’s really worth zooming in on the two most recent classes since the arrival of Drinkwitz. Luther Burden III is just the third consensus five-star ever to sign with the Tigers, and Mizzou was able to beat out the sport’s upper echelon for his services. Obviously, that’s a massive in-state win, but it also speaks to the upgrade in talent across the roster over the past two classes. One of the main reasons Drinkwitz believes he finally has “competitive depth” throughout the roster is that there are so many freshmen and redshirt freshmen/sophomores tentatively penciled into the two-deep entering fall camp.
As with many programs these days, the portal giveth and the portal taketh. The Tigers’ most significant departure was SEC All-Freshman defensive lineman Mehki Wingo, who would have been a solid young player to build around. Instead, he’s off to LSU. You could also make a case for quarterback Connor Bazelak’s departure for Indiana being the biggest loss, even if he was inconsistent at the helm of an underachieving offense last season. Either Mizzou is going to start a very inexperienced quarterback, or it will start a journeyman transfer in Jack Abraham. Peat will go down as a key addition if he can come close to filling Badie’s shoes. Defensively, the biggest impact transfer should be former Florida linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, an SEC arrival at a position at which Mizzou really needs an upgrade.
After overseeing marked improvement on the defensive line over the final eight games of the season, former analyst Al Davis was promoted to full-time defensive line coach. The Tigers’ rushing defense improved from 6.56 yards per rush against in the first five games to 4.41 yards per rush against down the stretch; it allowed nearly the same number of rushing touchdowns (15) over the final eight games as it did the first five (17). Ultimately, that wasn’t a tough call for Drinkwitz. When defensive coordinator Steve Wilks left for the NFL in February, Drinkwitz elevated Baker to keep continuity in the scheme — Mizzou is on its third DC in three years — and because he brings six years of previous DC experience to the role.
There is significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball and a desperate need for improvement on defense. But the talent level is rising within this program. Still, it’s hard to predict how this season is going to go from a win-loss perspective, with such a grueling first half of the schedule and either a brand-new quarterback or a largely inexperienced one. Certainly, Mizzou fans would like to see the next step taken by a program that’s hovered around .500 during Drinkwitz’s tenure, including some painfully lopsided losses. But it’s not clear how that step is possible against this schedule.
Editor’s note: This is part of a series previewing Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2022 college football season.
(Top photo of Tauskie Dove and Mookie Cooper: Denny Medley / USA Today)